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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2024-12-24T09:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-12-24T09:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/35909/-1
CME Note: [PRELIMINARY] Relatively wide, bright CME in SOHO LASCO running difference imagery seen to the southeast and much fainter in white light imagery, likely associated with an M4.1-flare from AR13932 (S17E17) with an associated eruption. In addition to the flare seen in GOES 131 imagery, a significant looking eruption in GOES 284 with a large magnetic loop and dimming signature around 2024-12-24T08:30Z is observed near the vicinity of the active region. No clear arrival signature in solar wind at L1: there might be a weak arrival around ~2024-12-28T15:40Z, with separation of magnetic field components and a drop in density but it is inconclusive.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-12-27T21:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
Prediction Method Note:

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
BoM ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.7
Grid: 256x30x90
Resolution: low
Ambient settings: 
Ejecta settings: 
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: 

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 24/1838 UT
Radial velocity (km/s): 367
Longitude (deg): E03
Latitude (deg): S19
Half-angular width (deg): 40

Notes:

Lead Time: 67.50 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) on 2024-12-25T01:30Z

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